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Alan Pardew successor odds – Smart bet or not?

What is a smart bet? A million people will have a million answers to this question and there will hardly ever be a consensus between them. This is because most of us have some sort of logic behind our betting decisions, regardless of our gambling habits. But even though we cannot get to an agreement about what constitutes a smart bet, there is this one thing that is never a part of it, and I do mean never: pride! I know it sounds a bit strange but check out my reasoning behind it.

We will take the sacking of Alan Pardew as an example. He was let go this week due to the very poor performance of his now former team, Crystal Palace. Does this have anything to do with smart bets? Well, yes and no. The bookmakers are already offering odds regarding his successor, and this is the bet NO ONE should ever take.

Bookmaker odds for the successor of Alan Pardew

Think about the reasoning for this bet. Besides being a hardcore gambler looking for anything to get an adrenaline pump going, you would want to know where exactly do you stand in regards to value when placing a bet. In this case, there is none.

A value bet is a term used by professional punters. It represents a favorable ratio between the odds of a certain outcome coming true, and the odds of it given by the bookmakers. The reason bookmakers continuously make money is because they steal value from players all the time. Take tennis for example. Two players who have equal chances of winning are usually priced at 10/9 (1.9 decimal). This means 10% of the value was stolen from the punters by the bookmaker. Consider thsi as an example of a bad value bet.

Should you take this bet?

You don’t hold any competitive edge over the bookmakers and your money is best spent on beer instead. The bookmakers are simply covered way too well in these kinds of bets. They might get hit with a couple of big punters guessing right, but overall, their margin is huge here. So if there is no value, what is the motivation for getting involved in this bet? Well, I believe that pride is the key factor here.

In every man, deeply embedded is the sense of pride when he wins, or when he’s proven right over his peers. And this is all there is. If you place bets in such a fashion that you are already imagining the brag story for your friends, that bet is money wasted. Like when you play 1-X HT/FT on Liverpool – Southampton. Or when you try to guess the outcome of the Alan Pardew successor race. This is just not a smart bet and it serves a single purpose of soothing that brag-desire if you by any chance win it.

So think about it, especially if you are a regular punter. Think about the reasoning and motivation behind your picks and try to exclude pride from them. I reckon, you will increase your winning rate and by definition, a number of pints consumed. I really to believe that this is not a smart bet and I will take reason over pride in this case. The less pride you have, the more satisfied (read drunk) you’ll be.

About Marko Lipozencic

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